Huvudbudskap i Emissions Gap Report 2025

Summary

An analysis of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has slightly fallen, but not by enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.5-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, some of the progress is due to methodological updates, and the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 will once wipe out about 0.1°C, meaning the NDCs have barely moved the needle.

While holding global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 remains possible, the size of the cuts, at 55 per cent off 2019 emissions levels by 2035, and the time available to deliver them amid a challenging political climate means that a higher exceedance of this level will now happen. Any such overshoot must be limited through faster and bigger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with G20 leadership crucial. Every fraction of a degree avoided means lower losses for people and ecosystems, lower costs and less reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods to bring down temperatures.

Over the ten years of the Paris Agreement there has been a big drop in predicted temperatures; accelerated adoption of renewable energy; growth in climate governance; and plummeting costs of low-carbon technology. The international community is therefore in a better position to accelerate climate action – and take advantage of the many associated opportunities in economic growth, job creation, energy security and other development needs. However, the political will to do so is lacking.

The new NDCs have slightly lowered global warming projections, but not by enough to avoid a serious escalation of climate risks and damages – with many nations not submitting new pledges.

• Against the backdrop of greenhouse gas emissions growing 2.3% year-on-year to 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2024, only 60 Parties, covering 63% of emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025.
• Full implementation of all unconditional and conditional NDCs – the latter requiring external support – would lead to up to 2.3°C of warming. Implementing only unconditional NDCs would lead to up to 2.5°C of warming. This range compares to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report.
• Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year. 
• The most optimistic scenario, which combines full implementation of conditional NDCs and all net-zero pledges, would lower warming projections to 1.9°C, unchanged from last year.
• The updated policy projections and new NDCs account for two-thirds of the 0.3°C improvement, with the rest due to methodological updates. About 0.1°C of this progress will be cancelled out once the withdrawal of the United States NDC is accounted for. This means that the NDCs have barely moved the needle.
• All these scenarios – which operate on a likely chance, i.e. greater than 66% – would cause debilitating impacts to people, planet and economies.

Alignment with 1.5°C and 2°C goals would require rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions far above what has been pledged.

• 2030 emissions would have to fall 25% from 2019 levels for 2°C pathways, and 40% for 1.5°C pathways – with only five years left to achieve this goal.
• Full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs would reduce expected emissions in 2035 by about 12% and 15% respectively, compared with 2019 levels – although the US withdrawal will change these figures.
• These pledged reductions are far smaller than the 35% and 55% reductions needed in 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively.
• There also remains a huge implementation gap, with countries still not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone their new submitted or announced 2035 targets.

The size of the cuts required, the short time left to deliver them and a challenging political climate mean that a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will now happen, very likely within the next decade. This overshoot must be limited to minimize risks and damages and keep returning to 1.5°C within the realms of possibility

• The multi-decadal average of global temperature will now at least temporarily exceed 1.5°C. Stringent near-term emissions cuts could delay this overshoot but not avoid it entirely.
• Returning from overshoot will be extremely challenging. Nonetheless, the world must continue to target efforts at limiting global warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.
• This is because every fraction of a degree avoided:
  –  reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that areharming all nations, while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest;
  –  reduces the risks of climate tipping points, such as West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, and other impacts that could not be reversed even if temperatures dropped; 
  –  reduces reliance on uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods, which would need to remove and store about five years of current global annual CO2 emissions to reverse each 0.1°C of overshoot.
• The report looks at a “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario, which is designed to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66% chance, and return to 1.5°C by 2100.
• This scenario would require immediate action aimed at cutting 2030 emissions by 26% and 2035 emissions by 46% compared to 2019 levels, and deploying natural and technological CDR. 

While the task ahead is huge, progress made during ten years of the Paris Agreement shows that drastically cutting emissions is both possible and desirable.

• Temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C at the time of the adoption of the Paris Agreement, alongside growth in climate governance frameworks, policies and legislation.
• The required technologies are available, and wind and solar energy development continues to exceed expectations, lowering deployment costs and driving market expansion.
• The international community is therefore better placed to accelerate climate action – and drive economic growth, job creation, energy security and other development needs.
• However, accelerated emission reductions require overcoming barriers; navigating a challenging geopolitical environment; delivering a massive increase in support to developing countries; and redesigning the international financial architecture.

G20 action and leadership, particularly by the biggest economies and emitters, will be pivotal.

• Emissions of the G20 members – excluding the African Union – account for 77% of global emissions and increased by 0.7% in 2024.
• Seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with 2035 targets, while three members have announced targets. These pledges make a difference, but are not ambitious enough.
• The G20 is not collectively on track to even achieve their NDC targets for 2030. They will have to urgently and dramatically increase action to slash emissions.

Enligt UNEP har utsläppen förändrats så här sedan 1990

Enligt UNEP är “gapet” så här stort mellan vad länderna har lovat göra och

vad som måste göras!

…och det förutsätter ändå att det skapas väldigt omfattande “Negativa Utsläpp” (NET:s)

…och så här stor är sannolikheten att olika temperaturnivåer överskrids, vid olika scenarier